Andrew Korybko
korybko.substack.com
Sat, 13 Apr 2024 00:00 UTC – SOTT net
While the possibly impending withdrawal of US forces from Niger is definitely a victory of sorts, the proverbial “Battle for the Sahel” in the New Cold War is likely far from over.
It was wondered last month whether the US could salvage its Nigerien base deal after the military authorities scrapped their partnership pact upon being disrespected by visiting American officials. The news that Russian instructors just entered the country on a training mission likely spells the end of the Pentagon’s influence there. The departure of US troops might soon follow, though it’s unclear whether it’ll [be] due to the military authorities explicitly demanding it or voluntary to avoid Russia spying on them.
In any case, this is a monumental development since it means that Russian forces are now present in all three of the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation‘s states after deploying to its Malian core several years back and then entering Burkina Faso in January. Their bloc also withdrew from ECOWAS later that month too, which bolstered their credentials as a new regional integration framework for others to join if they’re interested. The combined effect of all this is that Western influence in the Sahel was dealt a deathblow.
It’s premature to pop the champagne, however, since the US is expected to pivot to the Ivory Coast as was explained here in mid-March two weeks before a top Alt-Media influencer wrote the same here in a way that indisputably plagiarized some of the aforesaid analysis. It’s important to share a side-by-side comparison showing the three occasions where the second writer plagiarized the first, since those who were exposed to that later article might not be aware that its ideas were stolen from an earlier one:
———-
* First Article: “Guinea is the top contender (to defect from ECOWAS) due to its recent political history and having the geographic capability to provide the neighboring Sahelian Alliance/Confederation with reliable sea access.”
– Second Article: “Guinea already offers the geographical capacity to provide the alliance with credible maritime access. That will lead to the progressive extinction of the western-controlled, Nigeria-based ECOWAS.”
—–
* First Article: “The stage is therefore set for the US to deploy drones to France’s Ivorian base on exaggerated anti-terrorist pretexts that really serve to keep the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation in check while also monitoring Russian activity there.”
– Second Article: “What lies ahead for Empire? Perhaps US ‘anti-terror’ drones shared with Paris at the French base in the Ivory Coast to keep the Sahel alliance in check.”
———-
Having clarified for the uninformed reader that whatever they might have read circulating across the Alt-Media Community about this before from that second author was actually plagiarized from the first one, it’s time to move on to analyzing exactly what the consequences could be of such a move. Prior to Russia’s new training mission in Niger, it was explained here how that country might have kept US forces while kicking out the French as geopolitical insurance of sorts from being targeted by Hybrid War.
Accordingly, that exact same scenario is now more likely than ever as a result of Niger canceling its aforesaid insurance policy out of self-respect after being disrespected by visiting US officials, though that doesn’t mean that it’s imminent though. Any potential US drone base redeployment to shared French facilities in the Ivory Coast would place neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali, the latter of which is the newly formed Sahelian Alliance/Confederation’s core, in the West’s crosshairs like never before.
Mali is already struggling to fend off offensives from religious extremists and ethnic (Tuareg) separatists, and this could become more difficult if the US and France put more pressure upon it along the southern front. The worst-case scenario for Mali would be if one or both of their spy agencies also begin operating out of Mauritania, which readers can learn a bit more about here, and begin to use it and the Ivory Coast in the same way as they’re presently using Poland to wage their proxywar on Russia in Ukraine.
Russia might be requested to scale up its military assistance to Mali if that happens, which would probably be sufficient for stopping these Western-backed proxy offensives on the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation’s core state, but then complementary ones might begin elsewhere. Burkina Faso can also be influenced from the Ivory Coast, while Niger remains vulnerable to influence from historically pro-Western Nigeria even though Abuja has made a big deal about wanting to join BRICS.
With these factors in mind, while the possibly impending withdrawal of US forces from Niger is definitely a victory of sorts, the proverbial “Battle for the Sahel” in the New Cold War is likely far from over. Those who celebrate shouldn’t do so excessively because the worst Hybrid War pressure might be yet to come, though that all depends on how competent the American and French spy agencies are, which of course can’t be taken for granted after their spree of regional setbacks over the past few years.
Comment: See also:
- Niger cuts military agreement with US who now must leave, follows recent expulsion of France’s military
- Russia strikes African military cooperation agreement with Niger
- France withdrawing ambassador, troops from Niger after coup: Macron
- Niger severs ties with US military after alarm raised junta will supply uranium to Iran
See Also:
- West gets ‘fantastic value’ out of Ukraine – Boris Johnson
- Hezbollah fires dozens of missiles towards Northern Israel
- EU power – German leader greeted in China by deputy mayor
- More ships attacked as Houthis claim danger area ‘expanding’
————————
Niger rallies against US troops, embraces Russian corporation
BY REUTERS
NIAMEY, NIGER APR 14, 2024 – 10:16 AM GMT+3
In Niger’s capital, hundreds took to the streets on Saturday, calling for the withdrawal of U.S. troops.
This comes after the ruling junta’s recent decision to end a military agreement with the United States and welcome Russian military instructors, marking a significant shift in strategy.
Marching through central Niamey, the demonstrators waved Nigerien flags, reminiscent of the anti-French protests that led to France’s forces withdrawing from Niger last year after a military coup.
One handwritten sign in English read “USA rush out of Niger,” showing support for the junta’s decision to revoke the accord that allowed around 1,000 U.S. military personnel to operate in Niger from two bases.
“We’re here to say no to the American base; we don’t want Americans on our soil,” said protester Maria Saley on the sidelines of the march.
Until the coup, Niger had remained a key security partner of France and the U.S., which used it as a base as part of international efforts to curb a decade-old insurgency in West Africa’s Sahel region.
But the new authorities in Niger have joined juntas in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso in ending military deals with one-time Western allies, quitting the regional political and economic bloc ECOWAS, and fostering closer ties with Russia.
The arrival on Wednesday of Russian military instructors and equipment was further evidence of the junta’s openness to closer cooperation with Moscow, which is seeking to boost its influence in Africa.
A few Russian flags were visible at the protest, but some citizens told Reuters on Friday they did not want the welcomed Russian defense assistance to lead to a permanent presence in Niger.
“We must not subsequently see the implementation of Russian foreign military bases,” said Abdoulaye Seydou, the coordinator of the M62 coalition of civil society groups that led anti-French protests last year.
His concerns were echoed by student Souleymane Ousmane: “This is how the French and the Americans and all the other countries settled in Niger – from military cooperation, they ended up occupying large parts of our country.”
It is unclear, however, if or when the U.S. troops will leave.
In March, the top U.S. general appeared to suggest there was at least some support from within Niger’s junta for a continued U.S. military presence despite its announced revocation of the accord.
One of the U.S. programs in Niger is a drone base known as Air Base 201, which cost more than $100 million.
Violence in the central Sahel hit a high in 2023, with conflict fatalities in the region rising by 38% compared with the previous year, according to U.S.-based crisis-monitoring group ACLED, citing reports of over 8,000 people killed in Burkina Faso alone last year.
SHORTLINK COPIED
LAST UPDATE: APR 14, 2024 1:15 PM
KEYWORD – NIGER CRISIS US ARMY NIGER COUP JUNTA
BIG BROTHER in the 21. Century 