The New Atlas
05.05.2024
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for May 5, 2024…
– Despite US arms package (along with packages from several European nations) Ukrainian defenses continue to crumble and Russian forces continue to gain ground;
– US-provided Ground Launched Small-Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) were meant to extend the range of HIMARS launched guided rockets from 70km to 150km, however, like GMLRS, GLSDBs have been rendered ineffective by Russian missile defenses and electronic warfare jamming;
– NATO and Ukrainian obsession with targeting Crimea and specifically the Crimean Bridge continues despite the strategic irrelevance of doing so;
– Ukrainian brigades continue to disintegrate, calls for building “additional brigades” which would take years are detached from reality;
– Meanwhile, Russia continues expanding military industrial production, increasing the gap between it and Ukraine’s Western backers compounding Ukraine’s strategic crisis;
– Western policy toward Ukraine at best reflects profound ignorance of how modern warfare and military industrial production actually work, at worst is cynically feeding all of Ukraine into a proxy war to maximize the cost of victory for Russia.
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CORRUPTION SPED UP UKRAINE’S RETREAT MORE THAN WEAPONS SHORTAGE
by INTEL-DROP May 4, 2024
The rapid crumbling of Ukrainian defenses, leading to military retreat, prompts questions about the Kiev regime’s failure to maintain the front line.
Russian troops continue to advance along the entire 1000-kilometer-long front line and squeeze the Ukrainian military from the Donetsk People’s Republic after the liberation of Avdeyevka. After taking control of Chasov Yar and Ocheretino, the Russian Armed Forces will get access to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration and destroy the Kiev regime’s defense line west of Avdeyevka.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has consistently criticized the West for hesitating to provide air defense systems, weapons, and ammunition, citing it as the primary reason for his military’s failures. However, it has been revealed that the shortage of ammunition has not been the Ukrainian Army’s main issue.
Kiev previously allocated almost 38 billion hryvnia ($960 million) to build a multi-layered network of fortifications; however, Ukrainian troops testify that the lines of defense barely exist, as quoted by the Associated Press. The Ukrainian military contends that these works should have been completed last year during a temporary operational pause, rather than amid a retreat.
“One can assume that a year ago, when the budget was planned, Ukrainians didn’t believe that the counteroffensive would fail. In general, the strategy was to attack and establish defensive positions on newly acquired territories. That is, fortifications were meant for offense, not defense,” Vadim Kozyulin, head of the Institute of Contemporary International Studies Under Diplomatic Academy of Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told Sputnik.
“But the situation has changed. Moreover, we see that this happened rapidly, and, most likely, unexpectedly. The Ukrainians probably saw what it was leading to, but they could not openly admit it, because they feared it could impact financing. They had to maintain some kind of optimism among Western partners. This let them down, catching them off guard,” he explained.
“The second issue is corruption. It’s an old Ukrainian problem and we don’t know its extent, given that everything is classified amid the hostilities,” the expert continued.
Where is the Money?
Funds allocated to strengthen Ukrainian defenses were stolen with the tacit approval of the nation’s government officials, presumed Vadim Mingalev, a military expert and political analyst.
He likewise drew attention to the fact that Andriy Yermak, a Ukrainian film producer who was appointed by Zelensky as the head of his office, supervised the project. The Ukrainian president also played a role in this farce by visiting the sites that were nothing short of Potemkin villages, i.e. an impressive facade designed to hide an inconvenient truth, the expert noted.
According to Mingalev, the fuss surrounding the US $61 billion tranche arose from the Kiev regime’s desire to allocate a portion of these funds towards its delayed fortification construction projects.
“As in any construction business, a certain estimate is first prepared,” the military expert said, explaining how the money might have vanished. “The estimate is then increased by one and a half or two times. Then, as construction progresses, it can go up three times, and so on. Accordingly, a certain amount of concrete, cement, and other building materials are not supplied for creating the defensive lines. What’s on paper often differs significantly from what is actually delivered. There is a rather sophisticated scheme [to steal funds].”
Military purchases and tenders are currently classified and do not go through Ukraine’s public procurement platform ProZorro, allowing corrupt politicians and their business partners to steal quietly, according to Kozyulin. Moreover, he added, the same individuals who seize these funds are responsible for overseeing their expenditure.
One might ask why Ukrainian authorities and business sectors are shooting themselves in the foot by undermining the country’s defensive capabilities.
“Ukrainian oligarchs who support Zelensky and work with him understand perfectly well that their fate is sealed, and they are laying the groundwork for departure. While preparing to escape Ukraine, they create some kind of financial safety net for themselves,” Mingalev explained.
Echoes of Zelensky-Zaluzhny Clash
Contradictions between the Ukrainian civil authorities and the army still exist, according to Sputnik’s interlocutors.
Kozyulin wonders what happened to former Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhny, who was named the new Ukrainian envoy in the UK in March but has remained in the shadows since. The expert doesn’t rule out that the maverick general was arrested. Last November, Zaluzhny openly advocated Ukraine going on the defensive, much to the displeasure of Zelensky and his party fellows.
“I think that the defensive line problem partly arose from those contradictions. That is, politicians said Ukraine would advance. The military retorted there were not enough forces for an offensive, Ukraine needed to go on the defensive (…) But for politicians, this meant damaging relations with [Western] donors who expected quick successes [on the battlefield] in exchange for their money. As a result, the defensive structures fell prey to the internal skirmishes.”
The situation appears bleak to the West, which had received assurances from the Kiev regime regarding the construction of defenses and the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ ability to withstand the Russian advance, according to Sputnik’s interlocutors. The experts suggested that the Zelensky regime deceived its backers, raising the possibility that Western politicians may also be implicated in Ukraine’s systemic corruption.
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Deployment of Western troops to Ukraine not ruled out in case front lines breached, Macron says
Thursday, 02 May 2024 6:59 PM [ Last Update: Thursday, 02 May 2024 7:07 PM ]
French President Emmanuel Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron says he does not rule out the deployment of Western troops to Ukraine in case Russia breaks through the Ukrainian front lines and if Kiev makes such a request.
Speaking during an interview with The Economist published on Thursday, the French leader once again stressed that Ukraine receives support from the West, including France, in the face of Russia’s battlefield advances.
Answering a question on whether Western troops will be deployed to Ukraine, Macron said if Russia broke through Ukrainian front lines, such a question would “legitimately” arise.
Back in February, Macron sent shock waves throughout Europe and unsettled France’s allies, including Germany, when said that he would send troops to Ukraine.
He doubled down on his earlier comments in the new interview.
“Absolutely. I’m not ruling anything out, because we are facing someone who is not ruling anything out,” said Macron when asked if he stood by his earlier remarks made on February 26.
Last week, Macron delivering a keynote speech, declaring that Europe is “mortal” and could “die” partly due to the alleged threat posed by Russia’s ongoing “special military operation” in Ukraine that began in February 2022.
“If Russia decided to go further, we will in any case all have to ask ourselves this question” about sending troops, describing his refusal to rule out such a move as a “strategic wake-up call for my counterparts.”
When Macron said he would deploy troops to Ukraine in February, most of France’s allies said they would not send any forces.
Macron’s remarks on Thursday come as some analysts believe that Russia could be on the verge of launching a major new offensive in Ukraine, which is in desperate need of Western military hardware.
“I have a clear strategic objective: Russia cannot win in Ukraine,” Macron further said, accusing Russian President Vladimir Putin of “a power of regional destabilization” and “a threat to Europeans’ security.”
“If Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be no security in Europe. Who can pretend that Russia will stop there? What security will there be for the other neighboring countries, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Lithuania and the others?” the French president asked.
Macron has made US angry with remarks on NATO troops in Ukraine: Report
Ukraine war unlikely to end soon: Top US spy
Speaking to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said developments trending both at home and abroad are in Putin’s favor and that he will likely press on with “aggressive tactics” in Ukraine.
“Putin’s increasingly aggressive tactics against Ukraine, such as strikes on Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure, are intended to impress Ukraine that continuing to fight will only increase the damage to Ukraine and offer no plausible path to victory,” she added.
“These aggressive tactics are likely to continue and the war is unlikely to end anytime soon,” Haines stressed.
Russia has repeatedly warned that the conflict in Ukraine could be prolonged due to the support of Western countries, on top of them the US, for Kiev.
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BIG BROTHER in the 21. Century 